Glossary of Terms and Concepts
A
adaptability refers to the degree to which adjustments are possible in
practices, processes or structures of systems, to projected or actual changes
in climate. Adaptation can be spontaneous or planned and can be carried
out in response to or in anticipation of environmental changes.
adaptation is the adjustment to a new or altered situation. See also
adaptation option.
adaptation options are policy options which adjust the physical environment
or our ways of using it to reduce the consequences of an environmental risk,
as opposed to preventive options.
aerosols are tiny particles in the atmosphere. Aerosols may be either
natural or anthropogenic. Aerosols influence the
energy balance of the earth system directly by reflecting radiation and indirectly
by acting as cloud condensation nuclei, thereby affecting the reflectivity and
other optical properties of clouds.
aggregation is the joining of more or less equivalent elements that exhibit
mutual interaction. Aggregation can take place across different scale-dimensions,
leading to different resolutions on these scales. The most relevant scale dimensions
in Integrated Assessment Models are:
temporal scale (e.g. diurnal; seasonal; annual), spatial scale (e.g. local;
regional; continental; global), systemic scales (e.g. individual plants; ecosystems; terrestrial biosphere), and conditional scales (e.g. ecosystem internal
variability; inter-ecosystem variability; global variability).
anthropogenic means man made; caused by human activity.
assessment is a process that connects knowledge and action regarding
a problem. Assessment comprises the analysis and review of information derived
from research for the purpose of helping someone in a position of responsibility
to evaluate possible actions or think about a problem. Assessment usually does
not mean doing new research. Assessment means assembling, summarizing, organizing,
interpreting, and possibly reconciling pieces of existing knowledge, and communicating
them so that they are relevant and helpful to an intelligent but inexpert policy-maker
or other actor involved in the problem at hand.
biodiversity or "biological diversity" means the variability among living
organisms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine
and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are
part; this includes diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems.
biogeophysical processes include all (relevant) biological, geological
and physical processes and their coupled interactions in the Earth system or
in a subsystem of the Earth system.
biome A complex of biotic community consisting of all of the plants and
animals and their respective communities, including all of their successional
phases, in a large geographic area.
biosphere The part of the Earth and the ocean and the atmosphere in which
organisms live.
carbon dioxide is a gas of chemical formula CO2. It is created by animal
life and by the oxidation of carbon compounds such as fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide
is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse
gas.
causal chain The causal chain of an environmental problem describes the
cause-effect relationships between human activity and environmental change.
In general, the causal chain of an environmental problem starts with socioeconomic
drivers leading to economic activity and other practices, leading to emissions
and other pressure on the environment leading to environmental changes, leading
to physical impacts on societies and ecosystems, leading to socioeconomic impacts, eventually
returning to cause changes in the socioeconomic drivers.
causal structure The total set of cause-effect relationships and feedback
mechanisms in between, underlying a given problem. Usually the causal structure
can be represented by a causal chain.
cellular automata A technique used in computer simulation modelling.
Cellular automata (CA) were originally conceived by Ulam and von Neumann in
the 1940s to provide a formal framework for investigating the behavior of complex,
extended systems. CAs are dynamical systems in which space and time are discrete.
A cellular automaton consists of a regular grid of cells, each of which can
be in one of a finite number of k possible states, updated synchronously
in discrete time steps according to a local, identical interaction rule. The
state of a cell is determined by the previous states of a surrounding neighborhood
of cells.
citizen panel Participatory technique in which a group of citizens meet
more than once to discus an issue.
co2 carbon dioxide.
CO2-calculator A interactive computer program which produces an estimate
of ones personal CO2 emission on the basis of ones lifestyle and behavior as
measured by means of a interactive questionnaire. A CO2 calculator also provides
insight into how one can change ones CO2 emission by changing ones life style
and behavior. See for an example the Personal
CO2 calculator at the website of the Climate
and Environment in Alpine regions (CLEAR) project.
complexity Applied to systems which are not "simple", that is which behave
like organisms or organisations, possessing some elements of structure, function,
self-direction, etc. to a lesser or greater degree.
constructivism Social theories which postulate that problems are socially
constructed (as opposed to realism, which states that problems exist independently
of the perceptions humans have on them).
Cost-Benefit analysis is an economic technique applied to public decisionmaking
that attempts to quantify in dollar terms the advantages (benefits) and disadvantages
(costs) associated with a particular policy.
Cost-Benefit models are computational models that apply cost-benefit
analysis for ex ante evaluation of environmental policy options.
cultural theory also known as "group grid theory". An explanatory scheme
created by Mary Douglas and applied by herself and colleagues as Michael Thompson.
It assumes two axes for describing social formations, "group" and "grid"; when
these are at "high" and "low", they yield types described as "hierarchist",
"egalitarian", " fatalist" and "individualist". Michael Thompson has added a
fifth type, residing in the middle, called "hermit". In recent applications
the "fatalist" has been eliminated from the scheme.
determinism A school of thought in which it is assumed that all physical
events are caused by the sum total of past physical events. Determinism suggests
that if there were a complete set of physical laws L and if one were
to know the state of the entire universe at a given moment S0 then any
future state could be derived at any future time Sn through S0
& L. Within this paradigm the practical applicability of the notion of
determinism for forecasting is limited by chaotic behavior of complex systems
and the practical impossibility to measure an initial state of the system under
consideration.
deterministic In deterministic models (as opposed to stochastic
models) all relationships are fixed and all parameters
and variables of the model are single fixed numbers at any given time. Consequently,
the model behavior, performance or operation due to a given input is uniquely
determined.
discipline Specialized branch of science. Examples of disciplines are
sociology, physics, economy, biology, anthropology, climatology, geography.
distributed models In a distributed model (as opposed to a lumped
model) one or more independent variables denoting spatial position are involved,
and the dependent variables and other model relationships depend on spatial
position.
dynamic simulation model A simulation model whose behavior or performance
is time dependent.
Earth System Model (ESM). Term used to refer to (bio)geophysical
models used in global change research, such as GCM models,
carbon cycle models etc. As opposed to Integrated
Assessment Models, ESMs only represent the natural system and do not include
representations of economic and social systems.
ecosystem means a dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro-organism
communities and their non-living environment interacting as a functional unit.
emission Pollution discharged into the atmosphere from smokestacks, other
vents, and surface areas of commercial or industrial facilities; from residential
chimneys; and from motor vehicle, locomotive, or aircraft exhausts.
endogenize To endogenize a given phenomenon (for instance technological
change) in a model means to include that phenomenon in the model by including
equations that govern it.
endogenous variables in a model are those variables that are considered
inside a defined system boundary of a modelled system, as opposed to exogenous
variables. For endogenous variables the time dependent behavior is part of the
output of the model calculations. For exogenous variables the time dependent
behavior is assumed (usually as one or more scenario's) and used as fixed input
for the model calculations.
epistemology The theory of knowledge.
ESM Earth System Model.
exogenous Factors outside a defined system boundary (of a system under
investigation) which influence the system behavior or performance are said to
be exogenous.
extended facts the sorts of technical information that is legitimate
in Post-Normal Science, including citizens'
surveys, anecdotal information, and the results of investigative journalism.
extended peer communities participants in the quality assurance processes
in Post-Normal Science, including all stakeholders
seriously engaged in the management of the problem at hand.
extrapolation The inference of unknown data from know data, for instance
future data from past data by analyzing trends and making assumptions.
facilitator A person who has the role to facilitate a structured group
process (for instance participatory integrated assessment) in such a way that
the aim of that group process will be met.
feedback A feedback process is a process whose input depends on its output,
in other words, the output feeds back into the process as input. A feedback
is said to be negative if it dampens the response of the system in which it
is incorporated and positive if it amplifies the response of the system.
feedforward A feedforward process is a process whose output depends only
on its input, and no feedback exists.
focus group Well established research technique applied since the 40's
on the social sciences, marketing fields, evaluation and decision research.
Generally, a group of 5 to 12 person is interviewed by a moderator on a specific
focused subject. With the focus group technique the researcher can obtain at
the same time information on various individuals together with the interactions
amongst them. To a certain extend such artificial settings simulate real situations
where people communicate among each other.
gaming is a simulation technique in which participants seek to achieve
some agreed-upon objective within an established set of rules. For example,
a management game, a policy game. Note: The objective may not be to compete,
but to evaluate the participants, increase their knowledge concerning the simulated
scenario, or achieve other goals.
GCM General Circulation Model.
General Circulation Model A computational model or representation of
the earth's climate, used to forecast changes in climate or weather. Most GCMs
concentrate on the circulation of the ocean or atmosphere ( the latter are often
called "atmospheric general circulation models"). Atmospheric GCMs consist of
equations that describe the atmosphere's basic dynamics, and include descriptions
of its physical processes. Functions represent the conservation of energy, momentum,
and mass, and calculate the distributions of wind, temperature, precipitation,
and other indicators of climate as a result of emissions from human and natural
sources. More elaborate climate models couple the atmospheric equations to others
which describe the structure and dynamics of the ocean, and to other components
of the climate system (land surface and ice). The most advanced models, three-dimensional
GCMs with coupled representation of atmospheric and oceanic processes, can be
run on only the largest and fastest supercomputers. Typically, GCMs are used
to determine and describe potential climate changes that would result from a
particular set of prescribed boundary conditions, after equilibrium is reached.
It is more difficult to analyze dynamic results with these types of models,
in which the boundary conditions are (more realistically) changing over time.
geophysical processes include all (relevant) geological and physical
processes and their coupled interactions in the Earth system or in a subsystem
of the Earth system.
GHG Greenhouse Gas.
global change refers to changes in the global environment that may alter
the capacity of the Earth to sustain life. The environments include:
These environments interact in very complex ways so that it is difficult to define what is cause and what is effect, or to predict future changes. However, when there is change, it is certain that many things will change together. For example, if the climate becomes warmer glaciers become smaller, the ocean could rise and warm, and precipitation patterns may shift. Changes in local environments will cause changes in plant and animal life.
global warming An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth.
Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences,
but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as
a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) The estimated warming effect over a period
of time, resulting from a hypothetical instantaneous release of one kilogram
of a given greenhouse gas in today's atmosphere. Each gas (CH4 , CFC-11, etc.)
has a different GWP. The GWP is indexed against the warming effect of 1 kg of
carbon dioxide (CO2). The GWP allows climate modellers to compare the relative
radiative heating of various gases, taking into account the differing times
that gases remain in the atmosphere and the degree to which they absorb infra
red radiation.
greenhouse effect A popular term used to describe the roles of water
vapor, carbon dioxide, and other trace gases in keeping the Earth's surface
warmer than it would be otherwise. These "radiatively active" gases are relatively
transparent to incoming short-wave radiation from the sun, but are relatively
opaque to the long-wave (infrared) radiation emitted by the earth surface. The
latter radiation, which would otherwise escape to space, is trapped by these
gases within the lower levels of the atmosphere. The subsequent reradiation
of some of the energy back to the surface maintains surface temperatures higher
than they would be if the gases were absent. There is concern that increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases may enhance the greenhouse effect and cause
global warming.
greenhouse gas are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both
natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. When
the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, the heat-radiation
balance of the atmosphere changes, which leads to an increase of the temperature
at the earth surface. This effect is known as the enhanced greenhouse effect.
The major man-made greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
(NO2), chloro-fluoro carbons (CFCs), Halocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocabons PFCs
and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).
group grid theory see cultural theory.
group moderator A group moderator has the role to guide a focus group
discussion.
habitat means the place or type of site where an organism or population
naturally occurs.
hedging is a quantitative technique for the iterative handling of uncertainties.
It is used, for instance, to deal with risks in finance and in corporate R&D
decisions. For example, a given future scenario may be considered so probable
that all decisions which are made assume that the forecast is correct. However,
if these assumptions are wrong, there may be no flexibility to meet other outcomes.
Thus, rather than solely developing a course of action for one particular future
scenario, business strategic planners prefer to tailor a hedging strategy that
will allow adaptation to a number of possible outcomes. Applied to climate change,
it could for example be used by stakeholders from industry to reduce the risks
of investing in energy technology, pending governmental measures on ecotax.
Anticipating a range of measures from government to reduce greenhouse gases
emissions, a branch of industry or a company could estimate the cost-effectiveness
of investing or delaying investments in more advanced energy technology.
HTML Hyper Text Markup Language, a computer programming language used
to write and publish pages on the World Wide Web. This glossary is written in
HTML.
hyperspace. The parameter hyperspace of a model is the theoretical multidimensional
space spanned up by all the parameters (imagine one axis for each parameter)
of a model and the corresponding numeral domains in which the value of each
parameter can lie.
IA focus group An IA focus group consists of a mixed group of citizens,
who are provided with basic information, have access to one or several state
of the art computer models during their deliberations and reach a collective
conclusion, say a policy recommendation for the issue under consideration.
IAM Integrated Assessment Model
ICT Information and Communication Technology.
IEA Integrated Environmental
Assessment
impact assessment is the systematic assessment of (potential) impacts
of environmental changes on societies and ecosystems.
implementation is action to realize a strategy or fulfill a purpose.
It is concerned with giving faithful effect to declarations, putting decisions
into motion, selecting and carrying through a course of action intended to achieve
identified (not necessarily announced) objectives.
inderterminacy is a category of uncertainty put forward by Brian Wynne.
Indeterminacy refers to the open-endedness (both social and scientific) in the
processes of environmental damage caused by human intervention. Indeterminacy
introduces the idea that contingent social behavior also has to be included
in the analytical and prescriptive framework. It also acknowledges the fact
that many of the intellectual commitments which constitute our knowledge are
not fully determined by empirical observations. The latter implies that scientific
knowledge depends not only on its degree of fit with nature, but also on its
correspondence with the social world and on its success in building and negotiating
trust and credibility for the science.
Integrated Assessment (IA) can be defined as an interdisciplinary process
of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific
disciplines in such a way that the whole cause-effect
chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two
characteristics: (i) it should have added value compared to single disciplinary
assessment; and (ii) it should provide useful information
to decision makers.
Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) a computer simulation program representing a coupled natural system
and a socio-economic system, modelling one or more cause-effect chains including feedback
loops, and explicitly designed to serve as a tool to analyse policies in order
to guide and inform the policy process, mostly by means of scenario
analysis. This explicit policy purpose defines the difference between IAMs and
Earth System Models (ESMs) such as Atmosphere
Ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs)
and geochemical models, which are designed primarily for scientific purposes.
It should however be noted that ESMs such as GCMs could also be used (and in
fact they are) to look at policy questions.
Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is the subset of IAs concerned with environmental issues.
lumped models (as opposed to distributed models) are zero-dimensional. Their
variables and modelling relationships do not depend on spatial position.
methane (CH4) is an important anthropogenic greenhouse
gas. It is also the main component of natural gas. Methane is called "swamp
gas" because it is produced by bacteria when organic matter decomposes under
anoxic (oxygen-free) conditions, as in swampy land. Methane-producing bacteria
are sensitive to oxygen, but they exist in habits such as animal digestive tracts,
sanitary landfills, swamps, sludge, and other decaying organic matter, where
the oxygen has already been removed by other bacteria. Methane is the only major
greenhouse gas produced in greater amounts by developing countries than industrialized
countries. Methane has a GWP of 21 (time
horizon 100 years), which means that each ton methane emitted brings about an
enhancement of the greenhouse effect comparable to the emission of 21 ton of
CO2.
model a mathematical, physical or mental representation of a system -
such as a global geochemical system, the climate system, an economic system
, an agricultural operation, a petroleum refinery, or a temperate forest ecosystem
- to explore its potential characteristics and behavior Many models (or system
representations) are programmed as computer simulations of causes and effects
within the system. These models are often used to test the effects of a change
in system components on the overall performance of the system. For example,
models of global or regional climate may be used to attempt to simulate the
effects on temperature of a future change in the atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases.
model moderator A model moderator has the role to present one or more
computer models in an IA focus group in such a
way that it is supportive for the IA participatory debate. The model moderator
also guides the specific discussions during the computer interaction period.
All other discussions are guided by the group moderator.
monetary valuation, also known as contingent valuation method is a survey-based
economic method that is often used to quantify non-market values in dollar terms
in order to quantify the benefits (or costs) of an environmental policy. It
therefore directly asks people what they are willing to pay for a benefit an/or
willing to receive in compensation for tolerating a cost through a survey or
questionnaire. Personal valuations for increases or decreases in the quantity
of some good are obtained contingent upon a hypothetical market. The aim is
to elicit valuations or bids which are close to what would be revealed if an
actual market existed.
monitoring Periodic or continuous surveillance or testing to determine
(A) pollutant levels in various media or in humans, animals, and other living
things and/or (B) the level of compliance with statutory requirements.
Monte Carlo is a statistical technique for stochastic
model-calculations. It's purpose is to trace out the structure of the distributions
of model output. In it's simplest form this distribution is mapped by calculating
the deterministic results (realizations) for a large number
of random draws from the individual distribution functions of input data and
parameters of the model. To reduce the required number
of model runs needed to get sufficient information about the distribution in
the outcome (mainly to save computation time), advanced sampling methods have
been designed. Latin Hyper Cube sampling is the most efficient method currently
available. It makes use of stratification in the sampling of individual parameters
and pre-existing information about correlations between input variables.
multi-criteria decision analysis a method of formalising issues for decision,
using both "hard" and "soft" indicators, not intended to yield an optimum solution
but rather clarifying positions and coalitions.
nonlinear system A nonlinear system is a system whose time evolution
equations are nonlinear; that is, the dynamical variables describing the properties
of the system (for example, position, velocity, acceleration, pressure, etc.)
appear in the equations in nonlinear form.
no-regrets policy Policy based on the idea that the problem of global
climate change is linked to other critically important problems of environment
and development. The combined risks are serious enough, and the eventual benefits
of action great enough, to require urgent and bold initiatives, even if they
impose a substantial immediate cost. Advocates of this policy argue that strong
action will lead to a "no regrets" outcome, even if climate change turns out
to be an exaggerated fear. The benefits will include experimentation, foresight,
and cost-effective prevention. Moreover, say the proponents, early actions offer
the prospective extra benefit of learning through experience: of gaining better
information about the benefits and costs of action through our first steps.
optimization models. Class of Integrated
Assessment Models which are designed to determine the optimal level of greenhouse
gas emissions reductions from abatement cost and damage functions.
ozone A molecule made up of three atoms of oxygen. In the stratosphere,
it occurs naturally and it provides a protective layer shielding the Earth from
ultraviolet radiation and subsequent harmful health effects on humans and the
environment. In the troposphere, it is a chemical oxidant and major component
of photochemical smog.
parameter A quantity related to one or more variables in such a way that
it remains constant for any specified set of values of the variable or variables.
parameterize Parametrization is the method of incorporating a process
by representation as a simplified function of some other fully resolved variables,
without explicitly considering the details of the process.
PIA Participatory Integrated Assessment.
portability is the extent to which computer software can be run on different
computer platforms or under different operating systems.
post-normal science is the methodology that is appropriate when "facts
are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent". It is appropriate
when either "systems uncertainties" or "decision stakes" are high. Click
here for a brief introduction to post-normal science.
preventive options are policy options directed at the causes of a environmental
problem rather than at the mitigation of the consequences as adaptation
options do.
probabilistic. Based on the notion of probabilities.
problem structuring an approach to analysis and decision making which
assumes that participants do not have clarity on their ends and means, and provides
appropriate conceptual structures. It is a part of "soft systems methodology".
process-detail is the extent to which equations that govern variables
in a model reflect the actual detailed mechanisms of the processes in the real
world which they represent. The opposite of high process detail is formed by
highly aggregated parameterized representations.
reflexivity applied by social theorists (Giddens, Beck) to refer EITHER
to the enhanced self-awareness of people in advanced modern society, and hence
of institutions to be more self-conscious in their work; OR to the tendency
of modern industry to produce unexpected, unwanted effects in Nature which reflect
back on society. ALSO used in "reflexive complex systems", those where sub-systems
("holons") have purposes and awareness of their own.
relativism school of thought in which all knowledge is seen as socially
produced and therefore distorted by social interests. Since all knowledge is
thus distorted, there are no independent standards of truth.
reservoir means a component or components of the climate system where
a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored.
scenario A plausible description of how the future may develop, based
on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships
and driving forces (e.g., rate of technology changes, prices). Note that scenarios
are neither predictions nor forecasts. The results of scenarios (unlike forecasts)
depend on the boundary conditions of the scenario.
simulation (l) A model that behaves or operates like a given system when
provided a set of controlled inputs. A model that represents some aspect of
the simuland's behavior. (2) The process of developing or using a model as in
(1). (3) An implementation of a special kind of model that represents at least
some key internal elements of a system and describes how those elements interact
over time.
sink means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a pollutant
(for instance a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas)
from a reservoir (for instance the atmosphere, or the ocean). A carbon sink,
for example, might be the ocean (which absorbs and holds carbon from other reservoirs
of the carbon cycle) or photosynthesis (which converts atmospheric carbon into
plant material). Sinks are a fundamental factor in the ongoing balance which
determines the concentration of every greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. If the
sink is greater than the sources of a gas, its concentration in the atmosphere
will decrease; if the source is greater than the sink, the concentration will
increase.
source means any process or activity which releases a pollutant (for
instance a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas) into
a reservoir (for instance the atmosphere or the ocean. See also sink.
stakeholders are those actors who are directly or indirectly affected
by a issue and who could affect the outcome of a decision making process regarding
that issue or are affected by it.
steady A system is said to be in steady state if it's state is constant
and does not vary with time. A model is said to be static or steady state if
it's behavior is constant and does not vary with time, as opposed to dynamic
or unsteady models.
stochastic In stochastic models (as opposed to deterministic
models), the parameters and variables are represented
by probability distribution functions. Consequently, the model behavior, performance,
or operation is probabilistic.
stratosphere That layer of the atmosphere extending from the tropopause
(8 to 15 km altitude) to about 50 km. The ozone layer which shields the Earth
from ultraviolet radiation is located in the stratosphere.
sustainability A term used in, for example agriculture and forestry,
to designate management methods designed to ensure that the productive yield
of an ecosystem is maintained undiminished for the benefit of future generations.
sustainable development According to the WCED, this is "development that
meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs." Sustainable development implies economic growth together
with the protection of environmental quality, each reinforcing the other. The
essence of this form of development is a stable relationship between human activities
and the natural world, which does not diminish the prospects for future generations
to enjoy a quality of life at least as good as our own. Many observers believe
that participatory democracy, undominated by vested interests, is a prerequisite
for achieving sustainable development.
systems analyses an approach to problem-solving, developed in WW-II,
which looks at the aggregate behavior and selects strategically significantly
problems to solve, rather than attempting complete scientific knowledge of all
elements.
tacit knowledge a sort of knowing, elaborated by Michael Polanyi, which
involves only a peripheral awareness, and relates to the implicit framework
in which knowing and acting takes place.
transparency is the degree to which a model is transparent.
transparent A model is said to be transparent if all key assumptions
that underlie it are accessible and understandable for the user.
troposphere The inner layer of the atmosphere below about 15 km, within
which there is normally a steady decrease of temperature with increasing altitude.
Nearly all clouds form and weather conditions manifest themselves within this
region, and its thermal structure is caused primarily by the heating of the
Earth's surface by solar radiation, followed by heat transfer by turbulent mixing
and convection.
uncertainty-based models are models that explicitly take into account
uncertainty, usually by representing all parameters of the model by probability
density functions.
unsteady A model is said to be unsteady or dynamic if its behavior varies
with time, as opposed to steady of static models.
validation Comparing a model's predictions with observations of the real
system, in order to test the reliability and accuracy of the model. The most
obvious way to test a model is to use it to analyze past events, and then see
whether its simulated prediction "came true," or how close it was to being correct.
Value Of a Statistical Life the Willingness
to Pay (WTP) for a small change in the risk of death divided by the magnitude
of that risk change.
variability When used in reference to climate, variability refers to
the tendency of conditions to vary around some reference point (such as the
tendency of the temperature to deviate from some average)
vulnarability defines the extent to which climate change may damage or
harm a system. It depends not only on a system's sensitivity, but also on its
ability to adapt to new climatic conditions. For instance, the consequences
of sea-level rise or changes in the distribution of malaria vectors or other
climate-zone related diseases are highly determined by the sensitivity, adaptability,
and vulnerability of the local systems. These are in turn affected by parameters
such as welfare of a local society or fitness of a local population. An industrialized
country that has enough money for a good coastal defense system will have less
exposure to future sea level rise than a developing country that has no money
for adequate coastal defense.
Willingness to Pay (WTP) A measure used to express non-market values
in monetary units (dollars). The WTP is measured by directly asking people what
they are willing to pay for a benefit an/or willing to receive in compensation
for tolerating a cost through a survey or questionnaire. Personal valuations
for increases or decreases in the quantity of some good are obtained contingent
upon a hypothetical market. The aim is to elicit valuations or bids which are
close to what would be revealed if an actual market existed.
This page was last updated at: 30 July 1999